How This Unusual Season Broke the Traditional NFL Coach of the Year Mold.
Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a straightforward script. It frequently functions as a form of mea culpa. Our apologies we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.
In theory, it's a clear-cut line: the coach who engineered the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an yearly discussion about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or just the greatest shock.
Yet this year's race is distinctly different. The pool of candidates is exceptionally deep. It has been the campaign of turnarounds. The NFL has been unpredictable, with recent division winners declining and longtime also-rans improving collectively. During an ordinary season, a coach leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's competing with five other outstanding candidates.
Below is how the projected ballot should shake out.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record
Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. When you fix a franchise QB, you're well on your way to winning the award.
Ben Johnson didn't merely corrected Caleb Williams; he's freed him. In the right environment, the QB has been given the chance to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's prolonged performance. With his guidance, Williams has become more confident, less careless, and has eagerly submitted to the scheme instead of going rogue. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball run game, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that springs wide receiver targets everywhere. The QB has capitalized. And when openings weren't there, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.
Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each bet – rebuilding the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based passer – has paid off. This is rare for a first-year head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the most sought-after name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, he has met the hype – and even exceeded them. He's demonstrated not just to be a scheme genius but the type of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.
In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current isn't a normal year!
The area where Johnson's case comes slightly into trouble is on defense. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on takeaways, and turnovers are famously fickle. Coaches can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offensive production is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. With a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be two victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.
4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Coen is in a similar position to Johnson. He's a fellow first-time head coach who has orchestrated a swift turnaround. During the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.
What's more notably, Coen has mastered the intangibles stuff, which was not a certainty following his initial press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.
Coen walked into the Jaguars with an exceptionally raw coaching staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and experience, Coen hired first-timers. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That type of setup is intriguing on paper, but often collapses in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job in real-time. Yet he has managed to bring the entire group and everything together.
Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason setback caused the team stumbling again. That's typically when leaders panic and change too much. Coen didn't. Rather, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped chasing home-run answers and started hunting reliable ones. The coach recentered the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and asked his QB to use his legs more often.
The outcomes are evident. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen gets the slightest deduction in the standings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.
3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3
Every Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.
Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a different quarterback and partnering him with an new play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has cooled off since that hot streak, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.
Still
